Research on the impact and mechanism of Chinese path to modernization and development on carbon emission
中国式现代化发展对碳排放的影响及机理研究

摘要

本文基于中国29个省份2011-2021年的面板数据，运用固定效应模型、中介效应模型、稳健性检验和异质性分析，多维度探究中国式现代化发展对碳排放的影响及作用机理。研究发现：第一，中国式现代化发展与碳排放之间存在显著的非线性关系，二者之间呈倒U型关系，即中国式现代化发展在初期将促进碳排放量的增加，随着中国式现代化发展成熟后将对碳排放起到抑制作用；第二，中国式现代化发展与数字经济之间存在倒U型的非线性关系，且中国式现代化发展能够通过影响数字经济对碳排放产生中介效应；第三，通过异质性分析可知中国式现代化发展对碳排放的影响效应在不同地理位置的省份之间存在显著差异性。

Abstract

Based on the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021, this paper explores the impact and mechanism of Chinese path to modernization development on carbon emissions in a multi-dimensional way by using fixed-effects model, mediated-effects model, robustness test and heterogeneity analysis. The study finds that: first, there is a significant nonlinear relationship between Chinese-style modernization development and carbon emissions, and the relationship between the two is inverted U-shape, i.e., Chinese path to modernization development will promote the increase of carbon emissions in the early stage, and will inhibit carbon emissions as Chinese path to modernization development matures; second, there is an inverted U-shape nonlinear relationship between Chinese path to modernization development and digital economy, and Chinese path to modernization development can influence digital economy on carbon emission by influencing the digital economy. Secondly, there is an inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship between Chinese path to modernization development and digital economy, and Chinese path to modernization can have a mediating effect on carbon emissions by influencing the digital economy; thirdly, through the analysis of heterogeneity, it can be seen that there is a significant difference in the effect of Chinese path to modernization development on carbon emissions among different geographic provinces.